Complete game mania - I'll leave it to the media idiots to talk about whether the Sox are some sort of pioneers for throwing complete games. They're pretty unlikely to throw any complete games in this series, due to Houston's homer-friendly ballpark and the Astros' more patient approach at the plate.Starting Pitching - The starters are pretty evenly matched. Durty thinks the Houston 3 are better than the Sox 4, which may be true, but it's not like Houston is going to be awarded 1.5 wins if Clemens or Oswalt dominate their starts. It's still one win. They also have to probably pitch Backe against Garcia or Garland, which favors the Sox. Clemens looks the most road weary and vulnerable out of the big three, and he hasn't been his normal bulletproof self in the playoffs or in his starts in September. Freddy Garcia, who tends to run up high pitch counts and gives up flyball outs, will be the most vulnerable Sox starter at Minute Maid.
Bullpen - I would expect that Ozzie would be a little more conservative and go to the 'pen at the first sign of trouble in the late innings, cuz it's the fricking WORLD SERIES. Houston's pen has been excellent, with the exception of Lidge's spectacular flat slider that Pujols deposited into the Plexiglas. Lidge is still the best reliever on either roster. The Sox counter with depth, but there's no way to tell how the long layoff will affect them. Neither lineup poses an obvious late inning pitching matchup; altho Ozzie may bring in Cotts to turn Berkman around to hit from the right, maybe Politte to face Ensberg. What can Bubba Jenks do against the Stros?
Hitting/Bench - Ozzie hasn't had to make any lineup moves, mostly because the Sox starting lineup is their best offensively AND defensively. Phil Garner has substituted defense for offense in the late innings, taking Mike Lamb out, putting Berkman on 1b, switching Chris Burke to LF and inserting Willy Taveras in CF. He's basically exchanging speed and defense (Taveras) for some more pop (Lamb), which he will probably stick with, although I think Taveras has a greater chance than Lamb of making something happen against a stingy Sox staff.
I'm guessing Garner goes with Orlando Palmeiro as DH, saving Jeff Bagwell for late inning pinch hitting. I think the Sox suffer less than most AL teams when they lose the DH, cuz Carl Everett doesn't really strike fear into anybody. In fact, taking Everett out makes the lineup better suited for Smallball (TM). Houston will definitely pitch around Konerko, which the Angels inexplicably failed to do, so it's up to Crede or Dye or Rowand or Pierzynski to pick up the slack. Houston's 1-5 is better, especially with Berkman and Ensberg, but the Sox are a little more dangerous throughout.
Luck of the Polish - What's it going to be? What kind of voodoo will AJ cook up this time? Notify the ump that Craig Biggio has too much pine tar on his helmet? Accuse Roger Clemens of using sandpaper? Cut down the pole in Tal's Hill?
I'm scared because the Sox have caught every break in crucial moments to swing the momentum back around their way. The umpiring crew from the ALCS looked especially snakebitten, missing three calls in Game 5. How good are the Sox, really, without the breaks going their way? The Astros look bulletproof to bad breaks, dealing with the Pujols drama in workmanlike fashion by calmly closing out Game 6.
I think homefield advantage will be pretty big. Cold weather up in Chi-town favors the pitchers, while the crazy dimensions in Houston favors the Astros. I think games in Chicago will be low-scoring, while games in Houston could get a little crazy. Houston is definitely the best team they've faced so far, with far less flaws than either the Red Sox or the Angels. Six or seven games sounds likely.
