All I want for Thanksgiving is... Jim Thome?I haven't decided whether I like this acquistion or not, because the Konerko situation has yet to be consummated, so who knows. A highly unscientific straw poll of my Sox friends has resulted in two definite "no's" (from Jill and LeiGh, who have a strong affection for Aaron Rowand), one yes, and a maybe.
5 Good Things about this trade
- We don't have to watch Jurassic Carl waste four at bats a game, especially when he hit a brutal .206 in September. Thome immediately upgrades the worst #3 production in the majors with his solid OBP (career .408) and his lefthanded bat balances out a mostly righthanded lineup. Granted, Thome will swing and miss a lot, but the dude can also hit 35-40 bombs in the Cell.
- Konerko - Most people seem to think that acquiring Thome means Konerko is gone. I happen to think otherwise; Thome is not going to take away any of Konerko's playing time, since Ozzie wouldn't put a brutal fielder like Thome out into the field. If I'm Paul Konerko, I'm going to have a lot more runners to drive in, and more protection behind me since Dye and/or Iguchi will drop down in the order. Heck, even if Konerko doesn't sign, the Sox have made progress toward replacing his production. Tasty.
- Organizational depth is strongest in the outfield, namely flowing blond rookie Brian Anderson (who has a strong defensive reputation) and AA hotshot Chris Young (both listed as top 10 prospects here). It is also possible to move Podsednik to center, where he played for two years with the Brewers. Selling Rowand high, knowing that adequate contingencies that match his strengths were in place, is a good fricking idea. This also eliminates the possibility of insanity like "Jermaine Dye playing first base" from happening.
- Philadelphia will pay $22mill of the $46 mill Thome is owed over the remaining 3 years. Also, Thome has a "solid citizen" reputation, so he won't disturb the highly prized Clubhouse Chemistry (TM). No one can tell me he's more of clubhouse risk than when AJ signed last year. He's returning to his hometown, he's got doubters after his surgery, he's coming off a crappy year, he doesn't have a ring, and he doesn't have to be the Messiah because he's on a championship level team. He's not going to get any more motivated but still relaxed than he is in this situation.
- Daniel Haigwood and (reportedly) Gio Gonzalez are excellent prospects, but Haigwood was in AA last year, Gonzalez in high A. Excellent lefty prospects, but not close to being guaranteed, can't miss, ironclad locks. The path to the White Sox rotation is decorated with the remains of Corwin Malone, Lorenzo Barcelo, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, and Scott Ruffcorn. The path out isn't much prettier (Mike Sirotka, Jim Parque, James Baldwin). I'm saying, it's really hit or miss with pitching prospects; this isn't nearly as awful as missing on signing Clemens in '97 or even trading Kip Wells (ugh... I just had a Todd Ritchie relapse).
5 Bad Things about this trade
- I think LeiGh put it best: "Don't we already have an injured guy that can hit home runs?" Thomas has been more brittle, and chronic foot injuries to a 280 lb guy isn't good news, but Thome has had a history of back issues, and was out last year with right elbow surgery. He's also 35, and I imagine the track record for 35 yr olds coming off surgery to have excellent years isn't stellar. A check swing on a cold April day and he might be back on the DL.
- Everyone knew that Philadelphia was looking to get rid of Thome since rookie Ryan Howard showed he can handle first base. In a buyer's market, giving up Rowand, Haigwood, and Gonzalez is a lot of swag, especially so early in the buying season. Maybe if this is the end of spring training, but not when December hadn't even rolled around.
- Rowand played wall-defying, pain-ignoring defense, and if Anderson/Podsednik fall short of it, there is going to be a very noticeable upwards tick in the staff ERA. I think Pods would wear down faster playing in center, and Anderson is an unknown quantity at the big league level. The acquisition of Thome notwithstanding, the Sox won because of run prevention, and even a small dropoff in the overall defense could tip the balance on the razor-thin margins the Sox skated by (35-19 in one run games).
- Less risky propositions, like the equally old but healthy Carlos Delgado, and the younger, cheaper Lyle Overbay were still on the market when this deal was being talked about. Big spending teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox were also looking for good defensive centerfielders and had pretty shiny pieces for trade (I'm looking at you, Manny Ramirez).
- Konerko, after the free agent golden treatment, may decide over the creme brulee that the Sox are trying to send him a message, and sign with the Angels/Red Sox/Dodgers. Konerko not re-signing, the perceived void in center, and World Series hubris may also lead KW to something truly horrific, like trading for Juan Pierre.
I'm personally having a great time dreaming of Thome crushing 38 home runs and the Great American Hero in center doing the memory of Rowand proud. I don't think the Sox will win 99 games again, but that has more to do with not being as lucky (the 35-19 in one run game stat evening out, and avoiding the injury bug) more than anything else. The roster still has all of the ingredients necessary for a long postseason run. The Sox had only one clear upgrade, in the DH slot. It could be a lot worse; we could be paying $23 million for middle relievers.
