happy friday

Off to see Buehrle (hopefully not) give up another 7 earned to the Rangers tonight. Some home team fireworks would be awfully nice.

White Sox suckitude

Unlike the last time I left town, my baseball team has stunk it up, losing 5 of 6, granted, to two of the best teams in baseball (Boston and NYY), but still. Every weakness in the White Sox armor was exposed, from the inconsistent starting pitching, Ozzie's propensity to sometimes overmanage the bullpen, and an over-reliance on the offense to bail us out.

Something even more frustrating is that it's difficult to pinpoint how to get better via trade, which the harpies in the media are clamoring for. But, what are you supposed to do when all the pieces are there but they're just not performing? Coming into the season, who had a starting rotation that was better, upgraded by Javier Vazquez over the aging El Duque? The offense was rejuvenated with Jim Thome, who has more than pulled his own weight with an MVP caliber season. The bullpen was a work in progress, but has improved with the additions of Thornton and Riske, and anchored by Bubba Jenks, who was just as clutch as Hermanson last year. The defense was intact and has maintained its high level of play, although not as high as Detroit's (seriously, they're off the charts on defense this year).

So what's the deal? I think the starting rotation is suffering from playoff fatigue. Too many extra innings in a long postseason run takes its toll on a staff, no matter how tough they are. The Sox have already lost Politte for the season, Contreras started the season on the DL with some arm issues, Buehrle's complaining of a dead-arm, Freddy has lost some noticeable velocity. Only Garland, who pitched the least amount of innings in the postseason (but also has an excellent track record of health) has been unscathed, although his ERA is north of 5.

So, is there anything to the playoff fatigue idea? Of course I'm going to find out. I went back to 2000, since we've had 6 different World Series winners since then, to track the fate of the starters and primary relievers in the season following the World Series year. Granted, there's only so in-depth I will go here, short of tracking pitch counts for every game, etc., but I am working on the assumption that most playoff teams shorten up their staffs to use only their top 3 starters and 3 relievers, using only the #4 starter maybe once a round and to keep everyone on regular rest. Playoff pitchers tend to throw more pitches, especially relievers who might come in on consecutive days will wear out quickly (look what happened to Keith Foulke). Anyway, we start with the 2000 Yankees.

2000 Yankees (16 playoff games)

starters	age	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)	playoff IP
Pettitte	28	204.7, 19-9, 4.35	31.7
Hernandez	34	195.7, 12-13, 4.51	29.7
Clemens	37	204.3, 13-8, 3.70	28.0
closer
Rivera	30	75.7, 36 sv, 2.85	15.7, 10 appearances

Fate in 2001?

starters	team	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)
Pettitte	NYY	200.7, 15-10, 3.99
Hernandez	NYY	94.7, 4-7, 4.85
Clemens	NYY	220.3, 20-3, 3.51
closer
Rivera	NYY	80.7, 50 sv, 2.34

In 2001, the Yankees made it back to the World Series and were only a couple outs away in Game 7, so I'd say they bounced back well from the 2000 playoff run, aside from El Duque falling apart. Onto the D-backs.

2001 Diamondbacks (17 playoff games)

starters	age	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)	playoff IP
Schilling	34	256.7, 22-6, 2.98	48.3
Unit	37	249.7, 21-6, 2.49	41.3
Batista	30	139.3, 11-8, 3.36	21.7
closer
BKim	22	98.0, 19 sv, 2.94	9.7, 6 appearances

Fate in 2002?

starters	team	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)
Schilling	Ari	259.3, 23-7, 3.23
Unit	Ari	260.0, 24-5, 2.32
Batista	Ari	184.7, 8-9, 4.29
closer
BKim	Ari	84.0, 36 sv, 2.04

Arizona basically used 3 starters for their entire playoff run. The next year, they won their division again with an even better record, but were bounced in the NLDS by St. Louis. My playoff fatigue theory looks stupid at this point.

2002 Angels (16 playoff games)

starters	age	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)	playoff IP
Washburn	27	188.3, 18-6, 3.15	28.7
Lackey	23	108.3, 9-4, 3.66	22.3
Appier	34	206.0, 14-12, 3.92	21.3
closer
Percival	32	56.3, 40 sv, 1.92	9.7, 9 appearances

Fate in 2003?

starters	team	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)
Washburn	Ana	207.3, 10-15, 4.43
Lackey	Ana	204.0, 10-16, 4.63
Appier	signed with KC	111.7, 8-9, 5.40
closer
Percival	Ana	49.3, 33 sv, 3.47

Appier basically had his last good year. Washburn, Lackey, and Percival all had ERA increases by at least a run the following year, which can't all be due to bad defense. Hmmm. They finished 8 games under .500 in 2003 (77-85). I think the Sox pitchers are generally better than these Angels, but the meltdown of the entire staff is hard to dismiss. Lackey is the only above average starter left from this staff.

2003 Marlins (17 playoff games)

starters	age	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)	playoff IP
Beckett	23	142.0, 9-8, 3.04	42.7
Penny	25	196.3, 14-10, 4.13	22.0
Pavano	27	201.0, 12-13, 4.30	19.3
Redman	29	190.7, 14-9, 3.59	18.0
closer
Urbina	29	77.0, 32 sv, 2.81	13.0, 10 appearances

Fate in 2004?

starters	team	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)
Beckett	Fla	207.3, 10-15, 4.43
Penny	traded to LAD	204.0, 10-16, 4.63
Pavano	Fla	111.7, 8-9, 5.40
Redman	traded to Oak	191.0, 11-12, 4.71
closer
Urbina	signed with Det	54.0, 21 sv, 4.50

Beckett had one of his normal inconsistent regular season, Penny had shoulder issues, Pavano had a career year, Redman suffered with the league change, and Urbina had off the field issues that affected him. I think this staff is the closest in makeup to the current White Sox staff, and they seemed to weather the storm well. The only difference is that Beckett was fresh for the postseason because he missed time during the year, whereas that won't be the case for the Sox staff going into the 2006 playoffs. All of these pitchers were young, also, which may add something to their resiliency. Florida finished 4 games above .500 in 2004.

2004 Red Sox (14 playoff games)

starters	age	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)	playoff IP
Pedro	32	217.0, 16-9, 3.90	27.0
Schilling	37	226.7, 21-6. 3.26	22.7
Lowe	31	182.7, 14-12, 5.42	19.3
closer
Foulke	31	83.0, 32 sv, 2.17	14.0, 11 appearances

Fate in 2005?

starters	team	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)
Pedro	signed with NYM	217.0, 15-8, 2.82
Schilling	Bos	93.3, 8-8. 5.69
Lowe	signed with LAD	222.0, 12-15, 3.61
closer
Foulke	Bos	45.7, 15 sv, 5.91

Schilling, after the Bloody Sock of Turin incident, collapsed in 2005, perhaps setting the bar for pitcher endurance, but has bounced back in 2006. Foulke had to have knee surgery, and has yet to come back after a Rivera-like effort in the championship run. Lowe's numbers went up because of the league change. Boston tied for the division lead in 2005, but got knocked out in the ALDS.

2005 White Sox

starters	age	regular season (IP, W-L, ERA)	playoff IP
Contreras	33	204.7, 15-7, 3.61	32.0
Buehrle	26	236.7, 16-8, 3.12	23.3
Garcia	30	228.0, 14-8, 3.87	21.0
Garland	25	221.0, 18-10, 3.50	16.0
closer
Jenks	24	39.3, 6 sv, 2.75	8.0, 6 appearances

Looking above, there isn't a team that had a starting rotation that came into a playoff run with the starters having pitched so many innings (Sox had four pitchers above 200 IP). Also, it seems that the pitchers who bounced well after long playoff runs were freakish Hall of Fame types (Schilling, Unit, Clemens, Pedro), a proven playoff performer (Pettitte) or hadn't pitched very much in the regular season (Beckett). None of these examples are very helpful in thinking about the Sox. The most helpful parallel seems to the Florida staff from 2003, which was similiar composed of 5 above average performers instead of being top-heavy with two aces. Power pitchers seem to fare better, also, which bodes well for Contreras only.

It seems like the playoff fatigue for pitchers theory may hold some water. But, what is there to be done about it? We could have each of the starters skip a start in the next few months, with Brandon McCarthy taking their place, but that shortens a bullpen that still needs help.
Should the Sox trade for another starter? Who's available that is better than what is already here? The trade rumors for Jason Schmidt are totally ridiculous, especially since the Giants are still competing for the division, he costs too much ($10.5 mm), and missed time last year with shoulder issues. The other names on the market are Livan Hernandez, Rodrigo Lopez, and Tony Armas Jr. Ugh. All the other big names on the market are hitters, and we don't need more hitters. Speaking of other rumors, I'm getting ill at the thought of Abreu in a Bankees uni or CLee in a Tigers hat. Soriano to the Angels also freaks me out.

The scenario that makes the most sense for the Sox is to trade a starter (probably Garcia) for a top bullpen arm and a blue chip pitching prospect, and move McCarthy into the 5th spot. I keep hearing Tom Gordon, which is fine, altho a little too pricy for me. But it's the right idea. A backup catcher that can actually throw people out and a righty bat off the bench would be nice too. But, the Sox have the best bargaining chip out there (surplus starting pitching), so hopefully they can get something useful with it.

"God bless God"

The first day on a retreat is usually the most difficult for any number of different reasons, from lack of sleep, lack of food, tracking registrations, handling money, locating supplies, and fielding questions from the parents (no ma'am, you cannot pull your daughter early from the retreat for soccer practice). I try to fight it, but usually I get really cranky because I'm running around counting markers and picking up Chinese food instead of doing what I really love, which is interacting with the kids and helping my staff. Needless to say, I don't get a really clear picture of what's really going on at the nitty gritty level of the retreat until after the first *full* day.

Right from the first night, I had some misgivings, from the relatively small turnout (less than 50), the crop of first-time leaders, but it all turned around so quickly when I saw the kids get into it. We had an amazing spiritual director, Fr. Ben, who was able to devote all of his time to our program for the 5 days. I've never heard so many teenagers say they actually enjoyed sitting in a room to hear talks in the middle of the summer as when they were with Fr. Ben. He has that rare gift of parsing complex ideas into digestible pieces, and along with his infectious joy and sonic boom of a voice, he'll stand out as someone we'll never forget. "God bless God!" he'd rumble, by way of greeting and general benediction, reasoning that since all of our gifts are from the Almighty Himself, when we do something to please God, it's like God is blessing Himself. The kids were repeating it all week. It's a good sign when they're quoting your speakers over lunch.

We slept in boxes again, like we did for the Washington program. I wondered how well the Box City concept would work here. Basically, as a sign of our acceptance of our own spiritual poverty, we put the kids in a context of physical poverty, sleeping outside using boxes as shelter, such as the poor and homeless might. Earlier in the day, we took the kids to visit the Little Sisters of the Poor, who run a nursing care facility in Palatine. The sisters only take in residents who've run out of every other form of support, and basically take care of them free of charge. So the kids' eyes and minds were filled with that experience as we transitioned into Box City. I was worried about a "slumber party" atmosphere, or that it would make a mockery of the very real poverty that the homeless and the poor face, but the kids took it with the appropriate reverence. A bunch of the kids wrote "God bless God" on the outside of their box shelters.

One moment that sticks out in particular is a group of girls (the kids slept out in their small groups) who were making triangular tepee shelters with their boxes. One of the leaders suggested a different design for the cardboard pieces, but the girls replied, no we want to make it triangular because we want to "sleep within God, just like Fr. Ben said." They were referring to a diagram that Fr. Ben had used to explain God's equal presence throughout all of time (circular, instead of linear, totally fascinating stuff), and Father had used a triangle to show God's simultaneous presence at the beginning of time, at the death of Christ on the cross (like in the Mass), and our own deaths, and now here were these little 13-yr olds, on the back lawn of Marytown, making little tepees as a manifestation of what they learned. Awesome. I noticed another kid not using her cardboard pieces, not even a garbage bag as a cover over the grass, and I asked whether she needed anything. She replied, well, I'm not going to use the boxes because I was thinking about the homeless, and they don't even have sleeping bags like we do. So she'd decided to offer up that little bit of extra discomfort. Amazing kids, seriously. What was I worried about again?

Two down, one more to go in Toronto. I'll put up pictures when I get my camera charger back.

Marytown, IL

Off to retreat #2. Pray for us! Back on the 11th.

i am not titled

First, a link that connected with a conversation I had over the weekend, about how people of color can get to feeling sometimes. I seem to react to three groups of people: white people, because I want to prove that I'm just as good/better than they are, other Korean Americans, because I want to prove that I'm better than they are by being equally adept in the mainstream and in my niche culture, and everybody else. Who knows. Maybe I should just not think about this stuff and I'd be happier about it, but it never works out that way.

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I'm going to try and finish the U2 primer in mid-July, after the next retreat. I'd rather not push it into August, or else I don't think I'll get it done at all.

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The word All-Star doesn't make any sense to me. You're one of all the stars? Why aren't you just a star, then? I'm lost. Anyway, the almost-final rosters were revealed on Sunday, and Ozzie and Phil Garner did pretty well in minimizing the clunkers. All-Star rosters are extended to 31 (not the normal 25) to accomodate the silly "every team has an All-Star" rule, fan voting (Paul LoDuca? Mark Loretta? Seriously?), and managers' picks.

Anyway, here's a 25-man roster for each league, constructed with actually winning in mind (so no playing dudes out of position too much, appropriate amount of lefthanders in the bullpen, defensive aptitude, etc). The National League was a lot easier than the AL, probably because the AL has the 1b/DH logjam. No fuss/muss.

National League

Positional Starters (8)
C Estrada, Ari - switch-hitting catchers are NICE.
1b Pujols, StL - was on pace to bust Steroid Bear's single season homer record until he got hurt.
2b Utley, Phi - How cool is a name like "Chase Utley?" The only other career option that name would allow is "cowhand."
3b Wright, NYM - can't believe he's only 23. Worth a king's ransom in rotisserie.
SS Reyes, NYM - turned the corner this year by getting his OBP up. Also just turned 23.
LF Lee, Mil - I won't soon forget El Caballo turning around to our heckling while the ball was in play. Dude, pay attention to the game.
CF Beltran, NYM - finally earning that big money, still the best defensive OF in the game.
RF Berkman, Hou - been playing 1b this year, but has played RF in the past. Also, is on the All Big-Boned Team.

Bench (6)
C McCann, Atl - hitting .354
1b/SS/3b - Nomar, LA - can play a little bit everywhere and is hitting a ton (.363/.425/.591)
2b/ss - Vizquel, SF - defensive sub in the middle infield. My friend babysits his kids.
3b/LF - Cabrera, Fla - righthanded thunder off the bench, and I don't mean his thighs.
LF/CF/RF - Bay, Pit - He's Canadian. Every team has to have a rep.
LF/2b - Soriano, Was - guess I was wrong about him having a bad year in the NL
Could use another lefty bat off the bench. Cabrera or Soriano would DH. Would have chosen Abreu over Bay.

Pitchers (11)
SP Webb, Ari - best starter in the NL
SP Zambrano, Chi - could win 15 for a team that loses 100.
SP Arroyo, Cin - ERA leader, has pushed Cincy to the division lead
SP Glavine, NYM (L) - league leader in wins, the only good lefty starter in the NL
SP Pedro, NYM - still brings it in dramatic situations, as long as Grady Little isn't around
RP Carpenter, StL
RP Capuano, Mil
RP Fuentes, Col (L)
RP Gordon, Phi - And the girls who love him.
RP Hoffman, SD
RP Wagner, NYM (L) - 2 good starters and 4 lights-out closers round out the bullpen.

American League
Positional Starters (8)
C Mauer, Min - How many catchers hit over .390 this late in the year?
1b Thome, Chi - league leader in HRs, SLG, and Comiskey love.
2b Lopez, Sea - leading AL 2b in win shares. Sorry, Gooch.
3b Crede, Chi - Really. Defense, and he doesn't choke like A-Rod.
SS Jeter, NYY - can cure cancer, find Osama Bin Laden, lower gas prices. but doesn't.
LF Manny, Bos - requisite leftfielder who can bomb but can't field
CF Wells, Tor - He and Beltran are having very similar years hitting and fielding.
RF Ichiro!, Sea - can play center also

Bench (6)
C Hernandez, Bal - leads MLB catchers in HRs and RBI.
DH Hafner, Cle - I love Big Papi, but Pronk is having a slightly better year.
3b/SS ARod, NYY - provides entertainment value with meaningless home runs late in blowouts, galvanizes the clubhouse because everyone hates him.
2b/SS Grudzielanek, KC - ugh. every team has to have a rep.
OF Matthews, Tex - can play all three OF spots and run.
RF Vladdy, LAA - Dye is having a better year, but every team has to have a rep.
The overall suckiness of the bench is KC's fault. Would have picked Young over Grudzielanek, then Sizemore over Matthews. Could use some lefthanded pop and someone who can actually play 1b.

Pitchers (11)
SP Santana, Min - best AL pitcher for the past 3 years. Was Koufax like this?
SP Halladay, Tor - great pitcher with freak injuries.
SP Contreras, Chi - 16 straight winning decisions. Hated the Yankees so much, he refused to pitch well until he left them. That sort of integrity is hard to find.
SP Schilling, Bos - hard to believe the Bloody Sock of Turin got left off the All-Star team.
SP Zito, Oak (L) - Oakland made the right choice in keeping him over Mulder or Hudson.
RP Kazmir, TB (L)
RP Jenks, Chi - 100 MPH
RP Verlander, Det - 100 MPH
RP Ryan, Tor (L)- 100 MPH
RP Papelbon, Bos
RP Rivera, NYY

Why do it in 30 spots when you can do it 25?

Off to hunt for boxes.