Unlike the last time I left town, my baseball team has stunk it up, losing 5 of 6, granted, to two of the best teams in baseball (Boston and NYY), but still. Every weakness in the White Sox armor was exposed, from the inconsistent starting pitching, Ozzie's propensity to sometimes overmanage the bullpen, and an over-reliance on the offense to bail us out.
Something even more frustrating is that it's difficult to pinpoint how to get better via trade, which the harpies in the media are clamoring for. But, what are you supposed to do when all the pieces are there but they're just not performing? Coming into the season, who had a starting rotation that was better, upgraded by Javier Vazquez over the aging El Duque? The offense was rejuvenated with Jim Thome, who has more than pulled his own weight with an MVP caliber season. The bullpen was a work in progress, but has improved with the additions of Thornton and Riske, and anchored by Bubba Jenks, who was just as clutch as Hermanson last year. The defense was intact and has maintained its high level of play, although not as high as Detroit's (seriously, they're off the charts on defense this year).
So what's the deal? I think the starting rotation is suffering from playoff fatigue. Too many extra innings in a long postseason run takes its toll on a staff, no matter how tough they are. The Sox have already lost Politte for the season, Contreras started the season on the DL with some arm issues, Buehrle's complaining of a dead-arm, Freddy has lost some noticeable velocity. Only Garland, who pitched the least amount of innings in the postseason (but also has an excellent track record of health) has been unscathed, although his ERA is north of 5.
So, is there anything to the playoff fatigue idea? Of course I'm going to find out. I went back to 2000, since we've had 6 different World Series winners since then, to track the fate of the starters and primary relievers in the season following the World Series year. Granted, there's only so in-depth I will go here, short of tracking pitch counts for every game, etc., but I am working on the assumption that most playoff teams shorten up their staffs to use only their top 3 starters and 3 relievers, using only the #4 starter maybe once a round and to keep everyone on regular rest. Playoff pitchers tend to throw more pitches, especially relievers who might come in on consecutive days will wear out quickly (look what happened to Keith Foulke). Anyway, we start with the 2000 Yankees.
2000 Yankees (16 playoff games)
| starters | age | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) | playoff IP |
| Pettitte | 28 | 204.7, 19-9, 4.35 | 31.7 |
| Hernandez | 34 | 195.7, 12-13, 4.51 | 29.7 |
| Clemens | 37 | 204.3, 13-8, 3.70 | 28.0 |
| closer | |||
| Rivera | 30 | 75.7, 36 sv, 2.85 | 15.7, 10 appearances |
Fate in 2001?
| starters | team | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) |
| Pettitte | NYY | 200.7, 15-10, 3.99 |
| Hernandez | NYY | 94.7, 4-7, 4.85 |
| Clemens | NYY | 220.3, 20-3, 3.51 |
| closer | ||
| Rivera | NYY | 80.7, 50 sv, 2.34 |
In 2001, the Yankees made it back to the World Series and were only a couple outs away in Game 7, so I'd say they bounced back well from the 2000 playoff run, aside from El Duque falling apart. Onto the D-backs.
2001 Diamondbacks (17 playoff games)
| starters | age | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) | playoff IP |
| Schilling | 34 | 256.7, 22-6, 2.98 | 48.3 |
| Unit | 37 | 249.7, 21-6, 2.49 | 41.3 |
| Batista | 30 | 139.3, 11-8, 3.36 | 21.7 |
| closer | |||
| BKim | 22 | 98.0, 19 sv, 2.94 | 9.7, 6 appearances |
Fate in 2002?
| starters | team | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) |
| Schilling | Ari | 259.3, 23-7, 3.23 |
| Unit | Ari | 260.0, 24-5, 2.32 |
| Batista | Ari | 184.7, 8-9, 4.29 |
| closer | ||
| BKim | Ari | 84.0, 36 sv, 2.04 |
Arizona basically used 3 starters for their entire playoff run. The next year, they won their division again with an even better record, but were bounced in the NLDS by St. Louis. My playoff fatigue theory looks stupid at this point.
2002 Angels (16 playoff games)
| starters | age | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) | playoff IP |
| Washburn | 27 | 188.3, 18-6, 3.15 | 28.7 |
| Lackey | 23 | 108.3, 9-4, 3.66 | 22.3 |
| Appier | 34 | 206.0, 14-12, 3.92 | 21.3 |
| closer | |||
| Percival | 32 | 56.3, 40 sv, 1.92 | 9.7, 9 appearances |
Fate in 2003?
| starters | team | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) |
| Washburn | Ana | 207.3, 10-15, 4.43 |
| Lackey | Ana | 204.0, 10-16, 4.63 |
| Appier | signed with KC | 111.7, 8-9, 5.40 |
| closer | ||
| Percival | Ana | 49.3, 33 sv, 3.47 |
Appier basically had his last good year. Washburn, Lackey, and Percival all had ERA increases by at least a run the following year, which can't all be due to bad defense. Hmmm. They finished 8 games under .500 in 2003 (77-85). I think the Sox pitchers are generally better than these Angels, but the meltdown of the entire staff is hard to dismiss. Lackey is the only above average starter left from this staff.
2003 Marlins (17 playoff games)
| starters | age | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) | playoff IP |
| Beckett | 23 | 142.0, 9-8, 3.04 | 42.7 |
| Penny | 25 | 196.3, 14-10, 4.13 | 22.0 |
| Pavano | 27 | 201.0, 12-13, 4.30 | 19.3 |
| Redman | 29 | 190.7, 14-9, 3.59 | 18.0 |
| closer | |||
| Urbina | 29 | 77.0, 32 sv, 2.81 | 13.0, 10 appearances |
Fate in 2004?
| starters | team | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) |
| Beckett | Fla | 207.3, 10-15, 4.43 |
| Penny | traded to LAD | 204.0, 10-16, 4.63 |
| Pavano | Fla | 111.7, 8-9, 5.40 |
| Redman | traded to Oak | 191.0, 11-12, 4.71 |
| closer | ||
| Urbina | signed with Det | 54.0, 21 sv, 4.50 |
Beckett had one of his normal inconsistent regular season, Penny had shoulder issues, Pavano had a career year, Redman suffered with the league change, and Urbina had off the field issues that affected him. I think this staff is the closest in makeup to the current White Sox staff, and they seemed to weather the storm well. The only difference is that Beckett was fresh for the postseason because he missed time during the year, whereas that won't be the case for the Sox staff going into the 2006 playoffs. All of these pitchers were young, also, which may add something to their resiliency. Florida finished 4 games above .500 in 2004.
2004 Red Sox (14 playoff games)
| starters | age | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) | playoff IP |
| Pedro | 32 | 217.0, 16-9, 3.90 | 27.0 |
| Schilling | 37 | 226.7, 21-6. 3.26 | 22.7 |
| Lowe | 31 | 182.7, 14-12, 5.42 | 19.3 |
| closer | |||
| Foulke | 31 | 83.0, 32 sv, 2.17 | 14.0, 11 appearances |
Fate in 2005?
| starters | team | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) |
| Pedro | signed with NYM | 217.0, 15-8, 2.82 |
| Schilling | Bos | 93.3, 8-8. 5.69 |
| Lowe | signed with LAD | 222.0, 12-15, 3.61 |
| closer | ||
| Foulke | Bos | 45.7, 15 sv, 5.91 |
Schilling, after the Bloody Sock of Turin incident, collapsed in 2005, perhaps setting the bar for pitcher endurance, but has bounced back in 2006. Foulke had to have knee surgery, and has yet to come back after a Rivera-like effort in the championship run. Lowe's numbers went up because of the league change. Boston tied for the division lead in 2005, but got knocked out in the ALDS.
2005 White Sox
| starters | age | regular season (IP, W-L, ERA) | playoff IP |
| Contreras | 33 | 204.7, 15-7, 3.61 | 32.0 |
| Buehrle | 26 | 236.7, 16-8, 3.12 | 23.3 |
| Garcia | 30 | 228.0, 14-8, 3.87 | 21.0 |
| Garland | 25 | 221.0, 18-10, 3.50 | 16.0 |
| closer | |||
| Jenks | 24 | 39.3, 6 sv, 2.75 | 8.0, 6 appearances |
Looking above, there isn't a team that had a starting rotation that came into a playoff run with the starters having pitched so many innings (Sox had four pitchers above 200 IP). Also, it seems that the pitchers who bounced well after long playoff runs were freakish Hall of Fame types (Schilling, Unit, Clemens, Pedro), a proven playoff performer (Pettitte) or hadn't pitched very much in the regular season (Beckett). None of these examples are very helpful in thinking about the Sox. The most helpful parallel seems to the Florida staff from 2003, which was similiar composed of 5 above average performers instead of being top-heavy with two aces. Power pitchers seem to fare better, also, which bodes well for Contreras only.
It seems like the playoff fatigue for pitchers theory may hold some water. But, what is there to be done about it? We could have each of the starters skip a start in the next few months, with Brandon McCarthy taking their place, but that shortens a bullpen that still needs help.
Should the Sox trade for another starter? Who's available that is better than what is already here? The trade rumors for Jason Schmidt are totally ridiculous, especially since the Giants are still competing for the division, he costs too much ($10.5 mm), and missed time last year with shoulder issues. The other names on the market are Livan Hernandez, Rodrigo Lopez, and Tony Armas Jr. Ugh. All the other big names on the market are hitters, and we don't need more hitters. Speaking of other rumors, I'm getting ill at the thought of Abreu in a Bankees uni or CLee in a Tigers hat. Soriano to the Angels also freaks me out.
The scenario that makes the most sense for the Sox is to trade a starter (probably Garcia) for a top bullpen arm and a blue chip pitching prospect, and move McCarthy into the 5th spot. I keep hearing Tom Gordon, which is fine, altho a little too pricy for me. But it's the right idea. A backup catcher that can actually throw people out and a righty bat off the bench would be nice too. But, the Sox have the best bargaining chip out there (surplus starting pitching), so hopefully they can get something useful with it.
